What they found was that people who were shown the number 10 on the wheel guessed, on average, that there were 25% of African countries were part of the UN. Then they asked the people to estimate what they thought the percentage might be. They spun the arrow and when it stopped spinning, at either 10 or 65 they asked people to say if there were a higher or lower percentage of African countries in the UN than the number on the wheel. The wheel had numbers from 0 to 100 but was rigged so that it would land on 10 or 65. However, before they asked the question they spun a wheel of fortune. They asked people to estimate how many African countries were part of the United Nations.
In 1974 Tversky and Kahneman asked a very similar question. I’ll let you know a little further down the page. Let me explain by asking you this… What is the value of all the gold in the world? Is it more or less than $45 trillion? (don’t google the answer!).ĭecide what you think and keep that number in mind. When taken to extremes it affects your judgment about value and meaning, particularly when reinforced by a story, authority, and branding. The truth is that, no matter what you do, the first perception lingers in your mind and affects all later perceptions and decisions. The seller had exploited the cultural difference in values and the ability to distort my perception by giving me a very high starting point. We all believe that we act rationally and can evaluate the situation carefully before we make a decision, particularly about value. I had fallen for the oldest sales trick in the world.
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